How about when the 10-year treasury was approaching 3% and the world, including Bill Gross, said higher and higher. The economics dictated a different direction. What did you do then?
According to Livermore always determine the total amount you want to commit to a position BEFORE you start. The first trade should be 20% of the total. A 10% stop loss is immediately put in place. If your decision is wrong you have lost only 10% of 20%, not 10% of 100%. Livermore knew he was not infallible and always cut his losses.
But what do you do if you are right? As your position appreciates between 5-7% add another 20%, then another 20%. The final trade, according to Jesse, is 40%. Always raise your stop to 10% below your last trade.
That is the HOW. Now the question becomes which commodity is the WHAT?